In the 2012 South Korean presidential election, Moon Jae-in lost to Park Geun-hye. Now, a snap election has Mr. Moon positioned to be the next president. With the political right in disarray due to Park’s removal from office and the splintering of the political party she once led, the stage is set for the political left to take power again in the Republic of Korea. Why this will happen and what the likely short-term results will be on the Korean peninsula?

Kim Dae-jung was the first popularly elected liberal president in South Korea, serving as president from 1998–2003. South Korean presidents can only serve one five-year term in office. President Kim was succeeded by another liberal, Roh Moo-hyun, who served as president from 2003–2008. The end of President Roh’s term gave way to a resumption of conservative rule in South Korea. 

The party of Park Geun-hye has controlled the governing agenda regarding domestic and foreign policy for most of the last decade. Lost in the analysis of Park’s impeachment and removal is the political change that occurred in South Korea last year. On April 13, 2016, the elections for the National Assembly resulted in a narrow victory by the liberal opposition (Democratic Party). This result defied the polling data and dealt a blow to Park’s ruling party. Another surprise was the emergence of the People’s Party, a centrist and reform-minded third party that won a surprising share of seats in the assembly. The center-left controls the National Assembly and in conjunction with votes from the now splintered conservatives, led to 78 percent of the representatives in the National Assembly voting to impeach President Park in December. 

Now, the Democratic Party has chosen Mr. Moon to be its standard-bearer in the May election. The People’s Party is the vehicle of Ahn Cheol-soo who briefly sought the presidency in 2012 as an independent reformer. The political right is struggling to have a candidate poll in the double-digits. In the South Korean election system, the popular vote winner obtains the only prize up for grabs. This is why the Moon versus Ahn dynamic is the only matchup worthy of discussion. The conventional wisdom and polls have Mr. Moon winning the election, which will be proven correct when the voting occurs on May 9. When he quit the 2012 race, Mr. Ahn endorsed Moon Jae-in. While there are differences—mainly in domestic policy—between the Democratic and People’s Party, they are not great enough for the political left to be fragmented at the polls. 
Moon Jae-in was President Roh’s chief of staff and as such is heir to an entire political movement. The party of Mr. Ahn will play an important role in the National Assembly after the presidential election, because it will be a coalition partner with the Democratic Party (the current National Assembly sits until 2020). In the short term, his political movement is not strong enough and his brand is not distinct enough from that of the Democratic Party. The headwinds of change are in the air, which is why the established leader of the strongest opposition party will win the election in May.

미국의 '보수' 군사외교 전문지에서 문재인 후보에 대해 '대통령에 적임자가 될 것이다' 라고 말합니다.

또한 한미간 '사드 배치' 합의는 양국의 '이전 정부들' 간 협의였으며, 지금은 양국 모두 새로운 대통령을 갖게 되므로 '다른 상황이 조성됐다'고 언급합니다.

특히, 문 후보가 북한을 협상테이블로 나오게 하는 정책기조는 '모든 이에게 이익이 된다'고 말하며, 
문 후보의 새로운 접근법으로 다자간 협상이 진행되면, '미국과 다른 국가들은 이 상황에 만족할 것이다'라고 진단합니다. 문 후보의 새로운 외교전략에 '미국은 융통성을 찾을 수 있을 것'이라는 언급에서처럼, 

미국은 한국의 새로운 정부의 전략에 따라 얼마든지, 사드 문제도 북한 문제도 유연성있게 접근할 수 있음을 시사해줍니다.

미국의 '보수' 군사 전문가들이 내놓은 이같은 진단은, 문재인 후보가 현재, 대한민국의 국방과 안보에 있어 최고의 적임자임을 증명하는 것이라 하겠습니다.