2014년 7월 26일

Earth survived near-miss from 2012 solar storm: NASA

나사, 2012년 문명이 멸망할 뻔..

http://news.yahoo.com/earth-survived-near-miss-2012-solar-storm-nasa-222404357.html

워싱턴 AFP

'2012년에 발생한 강력한 흑점폭발이 문명을 18세기로 되돌려놓을 뻔 했으나,

태양폭풍이 간신히 지구를 비켜갔다" 고 나사가 말했다.

'2012년 7월 23일 지구 궤도를 때린 태양폭풍은 150년래에 가장 강력한 것이었다' 고

수요일 US space agency 가 웹사이트에 발표했다.

'태양 흑점폭발이 1주일만 일찍 일어났다면 지구가 불길에 휩싸였을 것'이라고 콜로라도 대학교

대기우주물리학과 다니엘 베이커 교수가 말했다.

그것은 1859년 캐링턴 이벤트와 견줄만한 규모였다. 

1989년 퀘벡의 전력망을 마비시킨 태양폭풍보다는 2배 강력했다.

'2012년 지구가 굉장히 운이 좋았다' 고 베이커가 말했다. 

캐링턴 이벤트 규모의 태양폭풍이 재발된다면 복구하는데 수 년이 걸릴 것, 

태양 흑점폭발이 자주 지구를 빗나가 왔으나, 직접 지구를 때린다면 결과는 궤멸적일 것이다. 

Space Weather 지에 연구결과를 발표한 물리학자 피트 라일리에 따르면 

'향후 10년 안에 캐링턴 이벤트 급의 태양폭풍이 지구를 직접 때릴 확률은 12프로' 다. 

이는 과거 50년간의 자료를 분석한 결과다.

"처음에 나는 높은 확률이 나오는 것을 보고 매우 놀랐다, 그러나 나는 술 취하지않았다"  고 라일리가 말했다.

태양폭풍이 지구를 직접 때릴 가능성도 있지만, 

지구자기장이 약화되면 평상시 태양에서도 녹아 내립니다. 

Washington (AFP) -

Back in 2012, the Sun erupted with a powerful solar storm that just missed the Earth

but was big enough to "knock modern civilization back to the 18th century," NASA said.

The extreme space weather that tore through Earth's orbit on July 23, 2012, was the most powerful in

150 years, according to a statement posted on the US space agency website Wednesday.

However, few Earthlings had any idea what was going on.

"If the eruption had occurred only one week earlier, Earth would have been in the line of fire," said Daniel Baker,

professor of atmospheric and space physics at the University of Colorado.

Instead the storm cloud hit the STEREO-A spacecraft, a solar observatory that is "almost ideally equipped to measure the parameters of such an event," NASA said.

Scientists have analyzed the treasure trove of data it collected and concluded that it would have been comparable to the largest known space storm in 1859, known as the Carrington event.

It also would have been twice as bad as the 1989 solar storm that knocked out power across Quebec,

scientists said.

"I have come away from our recent studies more convinced than ever that Earth and its inhabitants were incredibly fortunate that the 2012 eruption happened when it did," said Baker.

The National Academy of Sciences has said the economic impact of a storm like the one in 1859 could cost

the modern economy more than two trillion dollars and cause damage that might take years to repair.

Experts say solar storms can cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything from radio to GPS communications to water supplies -- most of which rely on electric pumps.

They begin with an explosion on the Sun's surface, known as a solar flare, sending X-rays and extreme

UV radiation toward Earth at light speed.

Hours later, energetic particles follow and these electrons and protons can electrify satellites and damage

their electronics.

Next are the coronal mass ejections, billion-ton clouds of magnetized plasma that take a day or more to

cross the Sun-Earth divide.

These are often deflected by Earth's magnetic shield, but a direct hit could be devastating.

There is a 12 percent chance of a super solar storm the size of the Carrington event hitting Earth in the next

10 years, according to physicist Pete Riley, who published a paper in the journal Space Weather earlier

this year on the topic.

His research was based on an analysis of solar storm records going back 50 years.

"Initially, I was quite surprised that the odds were so high, but the statistics appear to be correct,"

said Riley. "It is a sobering figure."